A Look at the 2012 Election

Eric Hare & Andee Kaplan
Dec. 6, 2012

Story of Our Lives...

Motivation

  • 2010 Supreme Court Ruling: Citizens United
  • PAC - Any organization in the United States that campaigns for or against a candidate, ballot initiatives or legislation
  • Super PACs - A PAC to which corporations, unions, and other organizations can donate freely
  • How did this impact the 2012 election?

Data

  • Independent Expenditures (FEC)
  • National/State Polling (Nationalpolls.com)

Spending Data

tail(spend.data, n = 2)

##        can_id       can_nam    spe_id              spe_nam ele_typ
## 110107        obama, barack c90013863 working for michigan       g
## 110108        obama, barack c90013863 working for michigan       g
##        can_off_sta can_off_dis can_off can_par_aff exp_amo    exp_dat
## 110107                       0       p               80000 2012-10-20
## 110108                       0       p                3060 2012-10-20
##        agg_amo sup_opp                                             pur
## 110107  109012 support             canvass outreach - began 10/20/2012
## 110108  109012 support literature distributed via canvass - 10/22/2012
##                       pay file_num amn_ind     tra_id   ima_num    rec_dat
## 110107   field strategies   822630       n f57.000001 1.296e+10 2012-10-20
## 110108 mack crounse group   822630       n f57.000002 1.296e+10 2012-10-20
##        prev_file_num  bucket        bucket2 oflag beneful_can
## 110107            NA canvass direct contact     1       obama
## 110108            NA canvass direct contact     1       obama

Polling Data

head(polls.data, n = 3)

##                    Pollster    State       Date Obama Romney isNational
## 1 Politico/GWU/Battleground National 2012-11-05    47     47       TRUE
## 2          Gravis Marketing     Ohio 2012-11-05    49     48      FALSE
## 3          Gravis Marketing  Florida 2012-11-05    49     49      FALSE
##   Obama.Romney
## 1            0
## 2            1
## 3            0

Cleanup

Bucket List

  • Ads - Advertisement spending, including television, radio, and online
  • Direct Contact - Direct voter contact, such as canvassing
  • Overhead - Expenditures related to the ongoing cost of running a Super PAC, including salary, rent, consultants, fundraising, and travel
  • Swag - Clothing, signs, and other promotional material
  • Other - All expenses that do not fit into the above categories

Spending by Independent Organization

Spending by Super PAC, stacked by candidate.

Map of Swing States

Map of United States with swing states highlighted in yellow.

Swing State Trends

Polling averages for Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney by swing state. Important events are indicated as follows: (1) Paul Ryan VP selection, (2) Republican National Convention, (3) Democratic National Convention, (4) 47\% video leaked, (5) first presidential debate, and (6) election day.

Types of Spending by Week

Total weekly spending by Super PACs in support or opposition of candidates. Important events are indicated as follows: (1) Paul Ryan VP selection, (2) Republican National Convention, (3) Democratic National Convention, (4) 47\% video leaked, (5) first presidential debate, and (6) election day.

Spending by Week

Weekly spending by Super PACs supporting Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney. Shaded region (1) indicates a period of lower spending by Super PACs supporting Mr. Romney and unshaded region (2) indicates a period of higher spending.

Change in Polling over Spending

Change in polling over change in spending by candidate. Important events are indicated as follows: (1) Paul Ryan VP selection, (2) Republican National Convention, (3) Democratic National Convention, (4) 47\% video leaked, and (5) first presidential debate. Change in polling over change in spending by candidate. Important events are indicated as follows: (1) Paul Ryan VP selection, (2) Republican National Convention, (3) Democratic National Convention, (4) 47\% video leaked, and (5) first presidential debate.

Effect of Spending on Polls

Polling margin (Obama - Romney) over time, swing states versus national polls. Shaded region indicates a period of lower spending by Super PACs supporting Mr. Romney and unshaded region indicates a period of higher spending.

Conclusions/Future Work

  • Effect of Super PACs difficult to measure
  • Romney Super PACs spent more than Obama Super PACs
  • Obama's polling stronger in swing states
  • [Future Work] Candidate spending
  • [Future Work] Fully explore usability of expense purpose data

Questions?